Division 2 - The Final Round Scrap

Well, here we are. One more round of Top 100 in Season 5. So for those of you not directly involved – and therefore probably not following quite as closely as those of us in the thick of it – here’s a quick summary of the fixtures and implications in the final matches.

Top of the League

Barring an amazing turn of events, Villarreal look to have the division title sewn up. A great run through the second half of the season has seen them rise to the top and maintain that lead. Barring a loss to Zenit, and a big win by chasers Atletico Madrid to overcome a five goal difference, Villarreal will take the title and move up to Division 1 in Season 6.

Atletico Madrid will join them, but the race for 3rd place – and the final automatic promotion placing – is wide open. Two rounds ago, Inter Milan looked to have it sewn up, but a couple of poor results from Alex’s side opened the door to a late run from Wolfsburg – who defeated both Atletico Madrid and Villarreal to move back into 3rd with a 1 point lead over Inter. So winner takes all in the final round, with both teams facing sides battling relegation and desperate for the points to keep them in Division 2 – Wolfsburg at home to Swansea and Inter Milan hosting Sporting CP.

Prediction – Villarreal 1st, Atletico Madrid 2nd, Wolfsburg 3rd (What? You didn’t think I was going to back myself??)

Playoff Contention

Joining either Wolfsburg or Inter Milan in the playoffs will be Sunderland, and two out of Bayer Leverkusen, Genoa and Benfica. While Bayer Leverkusen and Genoa have the edge over Benfica (55 points vs 52 points), Genoa face a tough trip to Sunderland, while Benfica are away to bottom-placed Sevilla and already have a 1 goal advantage over Genoa which could prove crucial in a loss/win combination. Leverkusen meanwhile host 19th-placed Olympique Lyonnais who are already confirmed relegated, although they have caused a number of upsets during the season. So the pressure goes on Genoa manager Frank Hirst to make it into the playoffs, while Tom Parfitt may well back himself for a late charge into the top level of Top100.

Prediction – Inter Milan 4th, Sunderland 5th, Bayer Leverkusen 6th, Benfica 7th (with Frank Hirst’s team bottling it and coming 8th on goal difference in their current form slump with only 2 points in the last four games)

Bottom of the League

While three of the four relegation spots have been confirmed – Spartak Moskva, Olympique Lyonnais and Sevilla – the battle to stay up remains wide open with 17th-placed Schalke only 2 points behind four teams: Fiorentina, Fenerbache, Swansea and Sporting CP. Even Southampton, thinking they should be safe in 12th spot with 46 points, have a mathematical possibility of being dragged into relegation contention thanks to their very poor goal difference of -12!

But for any of that to be interesting, Schalke need a win as they host 9th-placed Lazio to bring the other permutations into play. The sides played out a 2-2 draw earlier in the season in a very even game, but if Schalke can create the number of chances that they did in that encounter they stand a chance of an upset and put real pressure on the five teams above them.

As already stated above, Swansea and Sporting CP face a tough battle against top four sides Wolfsburg and Inter Milan. In the event of a Schalke win against Lazio, it’s most likely that the fourth relegated side will come from these two, and Sporting are the most vulnerable with a -17 goal difference (vs -13 for Swansea), which might just be enough of a distinction to see them go down.

If the football gods are smiling on all of Schalke, Sporting and Swansea - and they all somehow win - then the match between Fenerbache and league leaders Villarreal becomes a survival struggle for the Turkish side. Fenerbache would need a win, with a draw most likely sending them down on goal difference with Schalke staying up.

In a similar vein of outside possibilities, Fiorentina and Southampton have an outside chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but only if all four of the sides below them win – with three of those matches being against top four sides in the division!

Prediction – Sporting CP 17th (sorry Mr Dinosaur!), Spartak Moskva 18th, Olympique Lyonnais 19th, Sevilla 20th with Schalke beating Lazio and staying up.

Conclusion

So some great games in the final round with a lot still riding on it for the managers involved. I have a “promotion or die” clause in his managerial stipulations, and that makes automatic promotion a real bonus for him; Alex McLean at Inter has been talking big all season and needs to back it up with a final round result or face the playoff scrap for the last promotion place. And at the other end of the spectrum Ian D is fighting for survival in Division 2 in a must-win for Schalke, whilst Mr Dinosaur and Lee Adams are looking over their shoulders to see what happens.