Match Day 38 - The Final Countdown

Well we’re coming up to the last game of a fascinating season and so many issues have come right down to the wire so here’s a look at the final day possible movers, shakers and heartbreakers.

Division 1

Champions – Barcelona

Champions Cup Qualifiers – Barcelona, Bayern, Real & Juventus 

I stand to be corrected but my understanding is Man U will also qualify if they beat Bayern in the final and Porto will qualify if Bayern win.

Champions Shield Qualifiers – Porto, Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, Atletico

Fenerbahce will definitely qualify if they gain a point , whilst if they lose both Fiorentina and Man City could catch them mathematically their goal difference deficit is such that they would have to break all known T100 scoring records.

Again don’t quote me but as either Man U or Porto are expected to be promoted to the Champions Cup it could create an extra place in the Shield which will go to either Man City or Fiorentina if they fail to pull of the miracle of sneaking past Fenerbahce and to add further uncertainty a the team not qualifying through this route could join them if Chelseas win the SMFA Shield.

Not forgetting Stuttgart from Div 5 who will have qualified through their Top100 Shield win.

Confused, so am I.

The two are tied on points with Fiorentina having a 6 goal advantage in goal difference, City host Barca whilst Fiorentina are away to Juve.

On to the bottom end which is far more straight forward.

Relegated – Sevilla, Lyon and Milan.

In the frame to possibly join them are Lazio 36pts, Inter 37pts, Liverpool 38pts and outsiders Leverkusen 39pts.

A point for Lazio away to Man Utd would be enough for them to call clear if Inter fail to win away at Porto, if Lazio and Inter manage to win then Liverpool would be down if they fail to win at home to Madrid, meanwhile Leverkusen only need a point away to Milan to assure their safety but are unlikely to see all 3 clubs below them win and overhaul them.

Division 2

Promoted – Dortmund, Napoli and Schalke.

The Champions have yet to be crowned, Dortmund need a win away to Monchengladbach whilst Napoli need the Germans to fail to register 3pts whilst winning themselves at home to Boca.

Play-Offs – Only PSG have a guaranteed place due to the last day fixtures. The remaining berths being between Wolfsburg 62pts, Roma 61pts, Everton 61pts, Spartak 60pts and Newcastle 60pts who are all in the frame.

The critical game here on the last day will be Wolfsburg v Spartak, a win for either club secure their spot whilst a draw would see the Germans guaranteed a place.

Roma and Everton need wins away to St-Etienne and Galatasary respectively, whilst Newcastle must rely on Roma and Everton failing to win and Spartak getting no more than a point whilst they themselves win at home to Sporting.

At the foot of the table.

Relegated – Athletic Club, Galatasaray and Sunderlan.

The last place on the trap door is between St-Etienne and Sporting. St-Etienne must win at home to Roma and hope Sporting lose away to Newcastle, if the Portuguese side draw the Frenchmen must win by 5 clear goals.

Division 3

Promoted – CSKA and Basel.

Ajax are all but there unless an 8 goal deficit in goal difference can be overturned by Villa. Ajax face Lille away whilst Villa are away to Palace.

The race to be Champions is still a 3 way race, CSKA must win away to Swansea to secure the title, if they fail to do so and Basel secure 3pts away to Sassuolo then the title goes to them, if both fail to win then Ajax could sneak through the back door if they win at Palace, but it would have to be by 5 clear goals if CSKA manage a draw.

Play-Offs – Villa are guaranteed their place in the dust off, whilst the other 3 places are to be slugged out between Marseille, Leicester, Shakhtar, PSV and Bordeaux.

Relegated – Sampdoria and Sassuolo

In the basement battle to avoid sliding into Div 4 it looks certain that Lille will drop unless they win, Hamburg fail to gain a point, Hoffenheim lose and the Frenchmen overturn a 15 goal deficit.

Hamburg on the other hand have their destiny in their own hands, a win for them at home to Monaco will see them leapfrog the visitors.

Hoffenheim need to win at home to Marseille to be sure of avoiding the drop whilst Palace require a point at home to Villa to ensure safety.

Monaco as mentioned need to avoid defeat at Hamburg in what is arguably the divisions fixture of the season.

Division 4

Promoted – Southampton

The Saints can secure the title with victory in the match of the day away to Internacional whilst the Brazilians will secure promotion and possibly the title if they win.

Malaga will book their place in Div 3 with a win at home to Cologne and would be Champions if Internacional v Southampton ends up a draw or if Internacional win but by 1 goal less than the Spaniards due to their goals scored record.

Genoa could go up if they win at home to Udinese and Southampton either win or draw, a win would also see them pop the champagne if Malaga lose or draw.

Play-Offs – One from Internacional, Malaga, and Genoa will tussle it out with Udinese and Torino.

Atalanta will join them if they avoid defeat at AZ whilst the Dutch side will take the spot with a victory, another crucial fixture for sure.

Relegated – Celta Vigo, West Brom and Levante

To avoid joining them Espanyol must win at home to Torino whilst relying on Hellas failing to win at home to West Ham, a draw wouldn't be good enough for the Italians if the Spaniards win with their superior goal difference.

Division 5

Champions – Villareal

Promoted – Feyenoord and Stuttgart

Play-Offs – Hertha, Sao Paulo, Santos and Celtic

Augsburg are confirmed as the wooden spoon winners, to avoid finishing a fated second from bottom Bremen need a win at home to Rubin Kazan whilst relying on Twente losing, a point for the Belgians sees them  clear.

Good luck to all and may the algorithms run fairly.